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The African National Congress (ANC) in South Africa recorded its worst result since the end of the apartheid system, securing only 31% of the votes compared to 46% in the 2021 elections. The party leadership described this outcome as "catastrophic" amidst a sharp decline in its vote share across provinces and major cities.
Party Secretary-General Nkosinathi Mbalula explained that rising cost of living has turned the middle class against the ANC before the election, noting that this collapse was long expected. Meanwhile, President Cyril Ramaphosa stated he accepts the will of the people despite concerns about this significant decline which threatens the party's dominance in the political landscape.
The Democratic Alliance's share dropped to just 25%, while the "Mk" party led by Jacob Zuma came third with 10% and won control in Durban for the first time. The Freedom Party, led by Julius Malema, slipped to fourth place with 6% of the votes.
Political expert Susan Booyens noted that these elections send a destructive message to the party due to poor delivery of essential services such as water, electricity, and sanitation in townships and impoverished areas. She added that this decline encompasses local, regional, and national levels together, placing the party before huge challenges in the future.
Analyst William Gumede stated that these results indicate the end of an era of the liberation movement that dominated South Africa since 1994, and the ANC could become the second-largest party by 2029 instead of remaining the largest. He also pointed to a shift in voting patterns towards post-apartheid dynamics where the Democratic Alliance gained black votes significantly for the first time.
Work on forming new government coalitions will begin within 14 days of results declaration, especially in the Gauteng province which includes cities like Johannesburg and Pretoria where the ruling party may exit power. Gumede indicated that voters now want coalition systems working to improve society rather than single-party dominance that failed to use power for the people's benefit.
Analysis & context
Analysis & Context
From an analytical perspective, this continuous decline represents an existential challenge for the African National Congress, which lost its parliamentary majority in the national elections of 2024 for the first time since the end of apartheid in 1994. The party was forced to form a unity government with several other parties, indicating a fundamental shift in the South African political landscape away from single-party dominance.
In the broader context, the main cause of this decline significantly stems from poor delivery of services and infrastructure across the country, starting from water and electricity down to sanitation. Analysts also point that these major problems have severely impacted ordinary people's lives in suburbs and impoverished areas in dramatic ways, pushing voters to seek political alternatives.
The scene appears even more dire for the African National Congress as President Ramaphosa's term ends in 2029, where there are only a few candidates left to take leadership positions. The analysis also suggests this could be the end of the liberation movement era in South Africa, where the party might become the second-largest instead of the largest, potentially leading to a long period of internal conflict.
The elections also witnessed a significant transformation in voting patterns, where the Democratic Alliance, traditionally known as the "white party" attracting mostly white votes, gained more black votes. This indicates a transition towards a post-apartheid voting pattern in South Africa, opening new horizons for political coalitions and power distribution among different social groups.
