Sourced fact
The News
Satellite imagery shows Iran conducting extensive construction operations and comprehensive repairs to its military bases that were severely damaged during the past months from US and Israeli air raids. Analysis has revealed digging work and new facility construction at Garmsar base near Tehran and Shahid Shahrud base in the north, along with repairs to at least 12 other military sites including missile camps and airports.
Analysts from British intelligence firm Mears said Iran is following a recurring pattern of moving infrastructure underground to protect its facilities from further air strikes. One analyst noted that this construction makes it difficult for external observers to assess the extent of damage and operational status of the bases, while another analyst confirmed that these projects are unlikely to be an attempt to deceive foreign intelligence agencies given their high costs and limited potential benefits.
Significant digging near Shahid Shahrud appears linked to missile production, as the Iranian Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps is attempting to relocate its production facilities underground after the adjacent air base was targeted multiple times in recent years. New satellite images also show new gates for underground facilities at Karaj base and Kermanshah base in western Iran, while debris has been cleared and damaged buildings removed at the Parchin complex which suffered several consecutive air strikes.
These developments come after repeated White House assertions that US and Israeli raids depleted Iranian forces, while Iran denied this, confirming it retains large missile stockpiles. In a broadcast by state television this week, dozens of missiles were shown at the entrance to an underground facility in southern Iran, while previous footage showed surface-to-air missiles outside tunnels near Bandar Abbas and Qom.
A military analyst stated that these activities indicate Tehran is preparing for future attacks from the US and Israel, focusing on rebuilding military capabilities rather than repairing the damaged economy. Recently, US Vice President JD Vance pointed to the unpopularity of war among voters, suggesting it may have cost his party control of the Senate for the next six years.
Analysis & context
Analysis & Context
From an analytical perspective, these large-scale engineering efforts do not appear to be attempts to create illusions for foreign intelligence agencies, but rather a practical response to an existential direct threat. Sean O'Connor from Janes said such projects are expensive and serve little purpose if they are merely a deception, confirming that the true goal is actual military recovery.
In the broader context, these developments follow White House assertions that US and Israeli strikes deprived Iranian forces of their capabilities, which President Donald Trump refuted by describing the situation as "complete chaos." Nevertheless, Iran claims to retain large missile stockpiles, with state television broadcasting footage showing surface-to-air missiles outside tunnels near Bandar Abbas and Qom.
Military analyst Mark Cancian from the Center for Strategic and International Studies indicated that these military activities demonstrate Tehran is preparing for future attacks and prioritizing rebuilding military capabilities over repairing the damaged economy. This strategic shift reflects a change in Iranian leadership mindset viewing self-defense as an absolute necessity amidst ongoing war.
Finally, US Department of Defense reports claiming destruction of 90% of Iran's industrial base for missiles and drones contradict the on-the-ground reality shown by satellite imagery. This contradiction highlights a significant gap between political statements and geopolitical reality, making it difficult to accurately assess actual loss magnitudes without relying on physical evidence like satellite images.
