Sourced fact
The News
The second round of three-way talks in Abu Dhabi between Russia, Ukraine, and the United States ended without any significant breakthrough to stop the ongoing war that has lasted for five years. Although the US side indicated there were some openings, the two parties did not agree on a final resolution to the conflict that erupted after Russia's invasion of Ukraine. The Ukrainian delegation described the talks as the "hardest round" since last February due to the strict instructions given by the Russians, while expressing hope for organizing a second round as soon as possible.
Moscow and Kyiv confirmed that a large exchange of war prisoners is being prepared and may be implemented soon as part of ongoing diplomatic efforts. Additionally, plans were announced for US negotiators to visit Moscow and then Dublin to meet Russian President Vladimir Putin and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy, respectively. This round centered on what was known as the "security architecture" for Europe, which includes reassuring Kyiv with its allies versus Moscow's request to gauge NATO's influence in Eastern Europe.
US negotiator Jared Kushner said that the United States is seeking to create a new security framework to ensure lasting peace between Ukraine, Russia, and Europe. He pointed out that agreeing on a security framework for peace relies primarily on ending the war, which cannot be achieved without reaching an agreement on territory and other bilateral issues. He also highlighted the lack of trust between the two parties at present due to the nature of the long and complex conflict.
Kushner clarified that disagreements focus on whether a ceasefire should be held before discussing the security framework, something Europe and Ukraine see as necessary while Moscow insists on the opposite. Kushner also acknowledged that the issue of Ukraine's Donbass region was the "most difficult" in negotiations due to Russia's demands for Ukraine to cede parts it still controls. The American negotiator described these deals as emotional and extremely complex, especially in the absence of mutual trust among the concerned parties.
While representatives from Britain, NATO, and European Union countries participated in the Abu Dhabi talks, the Kremlin denied any contact with their delegations, considering their participation marginal. Meanwhile, a German government spokesperson confirmed that agreements cannot be implemented without consensus among NATO members, given that Eastern Europe's security is linked to Ukraine's security.
Analysis & context
Analysis & Context
From an analytical perspective, the intersection of conflicting interests among major powers around the concept of "European security" emerges, where the West views Ukraine's security as tied to its stance toward Russia, while Moscow believes any new security architecture must define the limits of trans-Atlantic alliance influence on the continent.
In a broader context, the Donbass issue represents the main obstacle to any settlement since talks began last year, as Moscow demands Ukraine cede regions still under its control while Kyiv seeks to freeze the contact line to preserve its territorial sovereignty.
Disagreements also arise over the sequence of events: European parties and Kyiv prefer a ceasefire before negotiating the security framework, whereas the Kremlin insists that fighting stops only after signing a comprehensive agreement covering all bilateral issues.
Jared Kushner points to the absence of trust among parties as an expected outcome after a long conflict, making any future agreement extremely complex and emotional, requiring significant time to build the necessary bridges of trust for regional stability.
