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The News
US officials have indicated that Moscow and Kyiv are showing special flexibility regarding control over eastern Ukrainian territories after the war ends, ahead of the first trilateral talks aimed at ending the conflict since February. Top officials from Russia, Ukraine, and the United States will meet in Abu Dhabi as the fifth anniversary of Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine approaches. The gathering focuses on addressing post-war security concerns for both countries, with Jared Kushner emphasizing that a key part of the process is encouraging the parties to seriously think about what comes after fighting stops.
Significant divergence remains between Moscow and Kyiv positions on ending the conflict, particularly concerning the partially Russian-occupied Donetsk region, where Moscow demands Ukraine cede remaining parts while Kyiv seeks to freeze the contact line to maintain control for security reasons. Despite neither party publicly agreeing to these demands, the US official noted that public stances do not reflect the full picture and both sides have shown special flexibility in informal sessions. The official explained that resolving the Donetsk issue and regional borders can only be achieved after agreeing on a new post-war security architecture, noting that reaching one is impossible without the other.
The proposed security framework may include alliance guarantees to help Ukraine if it faces another attack, while Russia might seek NATO's withdrawal from Eastern Europe, raising concerns among Europeans. The proposed frameworks include mutual security consultations, crisis hotlines, and tension-reduction measures, with a proposal to reactivate the NATO-Russia Council which has been dormant since 2022. European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen called on Monday for NATO allies and EU countries to be involved in any meaningful discussion about European security architecture, a position consistently supported by Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky.
US officials stated that Americans will propose transitioning to a multilateral format including Europeans in discussions, acknowledging that relations between Russians and Europeans are extremely tense. Since starting his second term, President Donald Trump has led several rounds of negotiations to end the conflict despite limited successes, while his conciliatory approach toward Moscow has raised deep concern in Kyiv and the EU. Ukrainian deputy speaker Alexander Mezhko expressed doubts about whether this approach will lead to a fair peace, believing Trump wants a quick deal at Ukraine's expense which Kyiv would certainly reject.
Abu Dhabi delegations from Russia will include Kremlin aide Vladimir Medinsky, Foreign Ministry officials, intelligence leadership, and military commanders, while Ukraine will send senior officials who participated in previous negotiation teams. Meanwhile, Russia continues bombing Ukrainian energy facilities, reinforcing Kyiv's view that Moscow wants to force acceptance of a deal on its terms. Kushner advised on Monday that Abu Dhabi talks can only build momentum toward the next phase of negotiations, confirming that the US is approaching these discussions seriously and realistically.
Analysis & context
Analysis & Context
From an analytical perspective, these trilateral talks suggest a potential shift in conflict dynamics with the Trump administration entering its second term, as Americans propose previously unavailable suggestions such as reactivating the NATO-Russia Council. However, long-term exclusion of Europe from negotiations raises deep concern among European leaders who demand participation to ensure decisions regarding their continent's security are not made without consultation.
In the broader context, the Donetsk file represents a core point of divergence reflecting the fundamental clash in both parties' goals: Moscow views control over the region as part of its regional gains while Ukraine considers maintaining it essential for its territorial integrity and sovereignty. Additionally, the idea of a "new security architecture" raises questions about whether it will guarantee protection for Ukraine from any future attack or merely serve as cover for negotiations restricting its independence.
Concerns also emerge in Kyiv and Europe regarding Britain's cooperative turn toward Moscow, where many believe these steps may encourage Russia to continue the war rather than seek a fair peaceful solution. Statements by Ukrainian deputy speaker Alexander Mezhko confirm that Putin will not begin real negotiations unless under pressure from harsh sanctions and deep attacks on his military and economic objectives.
Finally, despite American optimism about reaching a "big and beautiful" deal, skepticism remains in Ukraine regarding the fairness of any agreement signed without sufficient guarantees for its national interests and long-term national security.
