Sourced fact
The News
The Ethiopian capital Mekelle in the Tigray region faces security and social unrest despite the national army's control of the city, as residents live in uncertainty about their future. Reports indicate that life is gradually returning but not to a completely normal state, with citizens remaining anxious about what will happen next.
Freya Miar, a mother working at a beauty salon in the city, stated that the priority for residents is meeting basic needs rather than self-care, noting that businesses are nearly non-existent due to a lack of money and morale. She added that while the situation is better than during the war period, people still suffer from poverty and psychological instability.
The conflicts in the region resumed in late September between the Tigray People's Liberation Front (TPLF) and the Ethiopian National Defense Force, ending with the federal army's march into the city following the front's withdrawal, described as a "strategic withdrawal." Government sources confirmed that the war has effectively ended and that the remaining task is to purge the region of TPLF elements.
Analysts argue that the army's control of Mekelle stems from multiple factors, including the loss of popular support by the front, fragmentation of its leadership, and a lack of military technology compared to the national army. Analyst Cameron Hudson noted that the front lost many of its commanders and generals through defections or arrests, significantly weakening its military capabilities.
In contrast, TPLF spokesperson Michael Asgedom denied describing the situation as a defeat, asserting instead that it was a tactical strategic withdrawal to isolate the enemy in the heart of Tigray. He stated that the front is preparing for a counter-offensive and will continue attacking federal forces at several locations to demonstrate its ongoing military capability.
Residents in various parts of Tigray fear continued fighting using artillery and drones, especially near the border with Eritrea and in northern and western regions. Eyewitnesses reported heavy gunfire and active military movements in the town of Sheraro, close to the Eritrean border.
Opinions differ regarding the future of the conflict; some analysts believe the front may launch a prolonged war after reorganizing, while others argue it lacks sufficient strength to face the advancing federal army. Yared Tibeu believes the front has a history of overcoming difficulties and could return to military action after restructuring its political and military foundations.
Analysis & context
Analysis & Context
From an analytical perspective, there is disagreement among experts regarding whether the conflict has ended completely or entered a new phase of low-level insurgency. Some analysts, such as Cameron Hudson, believe that the Tigray People's Liberation Front (TPLF) has lost popular support and the military capabilities necessary to confront the newly modernized national army.
In a broader context, BBC News recalls that Tigrayan residents carry painful memories from the two-year war between 2020 and 2022, which witnessed widespread human rights violations and allegations of ethnic cleansing in western Tigray. The re-emergence of Eritrean and Ethiopian forces has reopened old wounds among the population.
Yared Tibeu, a well-known Ethiopian analyst, points out that the front's history of engaging in prolonged conflicts means it may prepare for another long battle once its military and political structures are restructured. Meanwhile, Hudson argues that the front remains stuck in the past and lacks the strength to face the expanding national army.
Finally, observers confirm that unrest will likely persist for at least some time, with reports indicating continued fighting involving heavy artillery and drones in parts of central, northern, and western Tigray.
